Lecture “History and Economic Development” in Shanghai

On October 21-22, 2017, our researcher Prof. Dr. Xu Yi was invited to lecture in the First Workshop for “History and Economic Development”, in Shanghai, China.

His presentation was “A Short Introduction to Historical Database Project“, in which he reviewed the Great Divergence debate, and introduced three Chinese historical database of the HINDI research team, i.e. Chinese National Income (1661-1933), Chinese Human Capital (1368-1911) and Chinese Industrialization (1850-2000).

More details are available in the Chinese report.

HINDI项目组徐毅教授在上海出席首届历史与经济发展工作坊

20171021日至22日,HINDI项目组徐毅教授应邀出席在中国上海松江举行的首届历史与经济发展工作坊学术研讨会,介绍了HINDI项目组建设的三项中国历史数据库,并和来自北京大学、复旦大学、河南大学、上海财经大学、上海交通大学、上海社会科学院、上海对外经贸大学、中国人民大学、中央财经大学、河南大学、暨南大学、广东外语外贸大学等10余所知名院校的20余名青年学者与嘉宾开展了学术交流。

以下为来自研讨会主办方的相关报道(作者:李亚婧 贺嵬嵬,文章来源:HED历史与经济发展工作坊 ):

研讨会以多重视野下的中国历史与经济发展研究为主题,各位参会青年学者从不同学科视野分享了最新研究成果,并就当前历史计量研究在我国的发展现状与未来展开了圆桌讨论。首届历史与经济发展工作坊学术研讨会获得了圆满成功,取得了丰硕成果。

当前历史计量研究不仅仅关注经济学或历史学单一某个领域,而呈现出多学科交叉研究的趋势,研究问题日益多元化,在多重视野下对中国历史与经济发展进行研究。

人口、疾病与经济发展。人口增长和人力资本都是决定经济发展的重要因素,而教育有助于人力资本的积累。中央财经大学申广军博士报告的论文“Do Schools Cause Students? Evidence from China’s Post-Famine Baby Boom”讨论了学校扩建对入学率的促进作用。通过构建1970-1978年27个省级面板数据,利用大饥荒后出现的婴儿潮作为工具变量。研究发现,学校的扩张有助于提高入学率和识字率。这对人口增长与人力资本积累的关系有更好的认识和理解,并对我国当前的教育政策具有启发意义。疾病也一直是影响经济发展的重要因素,历史上出现的疾病现象对经济发展产生长期的重要影响。广东外语外贸大学林友宏博士报告的论文《智慧元素的力量:碘缺乏病防治对我国经济发展的长期影响》探讨了碘缺乏症防治运动对我国经济发展带来的长期影响。通过利用中国劳动力动态调查微观数据,采用双重差分法考察补碘运动对个体身高、教育和收入的长期影响。研究发现,在上世纪七八十年代大规模补碘运动有效提升了孕妇和胎儿的碘摄入水平,改善了新生儿的健康和智力水平,显著提高了缺碘地区个体的受教育年限和年收入水平,从而对我国人力资本积累和经济发展产生了重要的作用。

移民、宗教与经济发展。历史上大规模的人口迁移构成了整个世界经济发展的重要内容,暨南大学谢斌助理教授关于美国上世纪移民史研究的论文“The Effects of Immigration Quotas on Wages, the Great Black Migration, and Industrial Development”探讨了移民配额自然实验对制造业工资、生产、技术和黑人大迁徙的影响。通过计算反事实的潜在移民和实际移民之差发现,移民配额限制了移民供给,导致了制造业工资上涨,而工资的上升促使黑人大迁徙到北方和西部,并促进了制造业的资本和技能密集度,但移民劳动力的短缺限制了制造业规模和电气化进程。这对当前移民政策具有重要的启发意义。北京大学颜色副教授的论文“Religion and Trade: Evidence from Historical Protestant Activities in China”考察了历史上中国基督教传教士活动对国际贸易的长期影响,通过匹配上世纪20年代的基督徒分布和2000年的外贸出口数据,实证检验了历史上的基督徒对于当代贸易的促进作用,并进一步探讨了教育和人力资本的机制问题。

水利、气候与农业发展。普林斯顿大学陈婷博士报告的论文“The Impact of Three Gorges Dam in Climate and Agricultural Adaptation”考察了三峡大坝水利工程对气候和农业的影响及其机制,通过综合GIS数据、气象数据、1989-2013年农调队观察点数据发现,2003年开始的三峡蓄水显著降低了200公里以内的下游降雨,减少春小麦亩产,刺激农民改种抗旱作物。而对水稻亩产和劳动力分配尚未发现影响。这一研究为衡量大型水利工程项目的长期影响提供了新的视角。

法制、皇权与士绅。河南大学彭凯翔教授的论文《“治人”与“治法”之间:从清代法律修订看官僚制下的法制建设》从法制史角度探讨了中华法系属性,通过梳理《大清律例》的修订过程,作者认为由于中国传统官僚制下君臣之间存在信息不对称问题,立法难以解决激励机制问题,因此法律演进由“法治”转向“治人之法”。利用清代《读例存疑》中的修例数据和《明清人名权威资料库》中官员数据进行实证检验这一假说,发现在立法建言的过程中,积极参与立法对官员的晋升并无显著作用,皇帝偏好和官员身份发挥了重要作用。这有助于更好的理解中华法系内部的不平衡发展。中国人民大学林展博士报告的论文“There is no Mercy: Legitimacy, Elite Competition and Political Discipline”从政治经济学角度考察统治者对官员惩治的动力,作者提出,在权力斗争过程中继承的合法性是重要的根源。通过利用《二十四史》中的数据来检验这一假说,以太子来衡量继承的合法性,作者发现皇位继承的合法性和兄弟数量会显著影响皇帝即位后对官员的惩罚。北京大学郝煜助理教授的论文《士绅权力扩张的来源和后果:1850-1911》考察了太平天国之后士绅的崛起及其影响。利用吏绅分权的行政发包理论,对近代士绅行为构建了一个解释框架并提供了实证检验。太平天国兴起之后,士绅崛起,获得征税权和其他行政权力,在慈善、教育等领域活动扩大。科举制废除之后,士绅面临的晋升激励机制发生变化,新政下更加热衷于汲取地方资源而失去对清王朝忠诚,最终导致民变发生,士绅响应辛亥革命。

数据库、可视化与传统史学。广西师范大学徐毅教授的报告“A Short Introduction to Historical Database Projects ”从学术史回顾了大分流争论,并介绍搜集和构建的三个中国历史数据库:中国国民收入(1661-1933)、中国人力资本(1368-1911)、中国工业化(1850-2000),以上数据库公开之后将为国内经济和历史学者提供标准化的、可跨国比较的基础数据,从而为历史计量学研究提供可靠的历史数据。上海财经大学王哲博士的论文《历史空间数据可视化的初步探索》介绍了地理空间可视化的发展历程,并利用海关数据和近代邮政舆图数据对空间可视化在历史研究中的应用进行了具体的分析,他认为历史数据可视化过程是一个不断试错的实验,可以推动过去的研究工作,更好的认识以前模糊的空间边界。上海交通大学赵思渊博士报告的论文《增长与脱嵌:近 20 年中国经济史研究的问题意识与进路》从传统史学角度回顾与反思了近20年来中国经济史的研究,指出在资本主义萌芽论之后,经济史再无核心问题意识,经济史研究趋向分散。通过对《中国经济史研究》、《中国社会经济史研究》从2000到2016年的发表论文的统计量化分析,发现研究较多关注明清以后的历史,并以长江下游与华南地区为主。同时,从经济史关心的两个核心问题,即经济成长和经济结构来论述农业发展、人口增长、产业经济、市场经济、国家力量等方面的研究新进展。

从上述最新研究成果可以看出,随着新的史料和数据的不断涌现,经济、社会、政治学理论的不断革新,计量统计方法和技术的不断进步,历史计量学在中国也不断发展与创新。探讨历史问题与现象成为理解人类社会经济发展进程以及当前国家与地区之间经济发展的重要根源,历史事件和现象本身及其长期影响成为经济学研究的重要内容。本次研讨会为历史计量学、历史学以及发展经济学的青年学者提供了一个严谨规范的学术交流平台,研讨会上学者也指出当前历史计量学存在史料薄弱与数据滥用、学术规范与学科评价缺失等现象和问题。如何适应当前历史计量学与发展经济学研究的新趋势,进一步推动和规范历史计量研究发展,重视史料和数据库等基础工作的构建与共享,增进历史学家与经济学家的对话与交流,促进各学科之间的合作与融合,建立严格统一的学术规范和学科边界,创造良好的学术生态环境,促进学科的建设和发展,仍需要各界学者的共同努力。

Where Do Ideas Come from? The Relation between Book Production and Patents from the Industrial Revolution to the Present

when 2014
who Aurelian P. Plopeanu
Peter Foldvari
Bas van Leeuwen
Jan Luiten Van Zanden
what journal European Journal of Science and Theology
what paper Where Do Ideas Come from? The Relation between Book Production and Patents from the Industrial Revolution to the Present
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

Recently, more and more use is made from book production as a measure of the long-run development of human capital. However, its relation with technology and growth is often found to be small and changing over time. In this paper we try to establish the link between book production and the spread of “ideas” as proxied by patents both over time and between regions. Two mechanisms may be distinguished. First, in the initial phase of economic development, the production of books may stimulate the accumulation of knowledge already present in society. After such an accumulation is complete, books may advance a common research focus within a certain geographic space. Indeed, applying this to the case of England, we find that books had a significant role on the number of patents during the second Industrial Revolution. However, when education became increasingly important, the role of books eventually broke down in the second half of the twentieth century. This pattern does not hold true for less developed regions where, due to the lack of efficient education, linguistic fragmentation, an overwhelmingly oral culture, and a structural different kind of knowledge, book production stagnated and no knowledge could be imported (for example, via translated books).

keywords

book production, patents, ideas, education, economic development

citation format

MLA
Plopeanu, Aurelian P., et al. “Where do Ideas come from? The relation between book production and patents from the Industrial Revolution to the present.” (2014).
APA
Plopeanu, A. P., Foldvari, P., van Leeuwen, B., & Van Zanden, J. L. (2014). Where do Ideas come from? The relation between book production and patents from the Industrial Revolution to the present.
Chicago
Plopeanu, Aurelian P., Peter Foldvari, Bas van Leeuwen, and Jan Luiten Van Zanden. “Where do Ideas come from? The relation between book production and patents from the Industrial Revolution to the present.” (2014).
Harvard
Plopeanu, A.P., Foldvari, P., van Leeuwen, B. and Van Zanden, J.L., 2014. Where do Ideas come from? The relation between book production and patents from the Industrial Revolution to the present.
Vancouver
Plopeanu AP, Foldvari P, van Leeuwen B, Van Zanden JL. Where do Ideas come from? The relation between book production and patents from the Industrial Revolution to the present.

Human Capital in Qing China: Economic Determinism or a History of Failed Opportunities?

when 2013
who Xu Yi
Peter Foldvari
Bas van Leeuwen
what journal MPRA Paper
what paper Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?
language 英文

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari Xu Yi
     

abstract

The traditional education system in Qing China has been widely debated over the past decades. Some have argued it was efficient and furthered economic growth, while others have stressed its inefficient nature, which led to the introduction of the modern education system in the closing decades of the 19th century, followed by its total collapse in 1905. In this paper we make a first try to quantify above debate. Starting from the observation that below the well-known civil examination system there existed a whole system of popular and vocational education, we find that years of education in the population were still lower than in many European countries. More interestingly, whereas in European countries years of education increased strongly in the 19th century, our estimates of average years of education and the ABCC indices show that the level of education remained stable well into the 1920s when it accelerated. However, the main rise only occurred during the late 20th century. This finding leads to an interesting question since per capita income only started to grow significantly since the 1950s. This means that the rise of education since the mid-1920s was not as such driven by per capita income. Apparently this was the same for both the traditional and modern education since the latter had already started to transform Chinese education from the 1890s onwards. Hence, we have to look at the question why persons decided to follow education, i.e. was it individually profitable to follow education (positive private returns)? However, testing for this latter hypothesis shows that, after correction for foregone earnings, life expectancy, and probability of passing the exams, only the below shengyuan level students actually had positive returns. For an ordinary person it was therefore uneconomical to join in the civil examination system. Apparently this did not change, not even after the introduction of the modern education system, until the 1950s.

keywords

human capital; China, private returns; economic development

citation format

MLA
Xu, Yi, Peter Foldvari, and Bas Van Leeuwen. “Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.” (2013).
APA
Xu, Y., Foldvari, P., & Van Leeuwen, B. (2013). Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.
Chicago
Xu, Yi, Peter Foldvari, and Bas Van Leeuwen. “Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.” (2013).
Harvard
Xu, Y., Foldvari, P. and Van Leeuwen, B., 2013. Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.
Vancouver
Xu Y, Foldvari P, Van Leeuwen B. Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.

 

Inspiration vs. Perspiration in Economic Development of the Former Soviet Union and China

when 2015
who Bas van Leeuwen

Dmitry Didenko

Péter Földvári

what journal Economics of Transition
what paper Inspiration vs. Perspiration in Economic Development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010)
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

We thank Stephen Broadberry, Kyoji Fukao and other participants of the Productivity session of the 2012 Asian Historical Economics Conference held at Hitotsubashi University; their contributions to the discussion helped to improve this paper. The authors are also grateful to an anonymous referee for useful advice and suggestions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions are the authors’ own views, which are not necessarily shared by the institutions with which they are affiliated. The authors accept full responsibility for the contents of the paper, including possible errors and omissions. This paper was supported by the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities in China (Jinan University).

abstract

Here, we discuss the role of both perspiration factors (physical and human capital) and inspiration factors (Total Factor Productivity) in the economic development of the Former Soviet Union area (FSU) and China, ca. 1920–2010. Using a newly created dataset, we find that during the Socialist central-planning period, economic growth in both countries was largely driven by physical capital accumulation. This finding follows logically from the development policies in place at that time. During their transition periods, (i.e., starting from the late 1970s in China and the late 1980s in the FSU), China managed to keep technical inefficiency of production factors in check, largely by massively increasing its human capital, thereby lowering the physical-to-human capital ratio. In contrast, the FSU accomplished a similar outcome largely through reducing its stock of physical capital. As a result, although there was little difference in technical efficiency between these two economies, China’s emphasis on human capital formation made it easier for this country to improve its general productivity and to increase per capita growth. This changed in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the FSU began to recover economically, regaining its 1990 levels of output and productivity.

keywords

Physical capital,human capital,productivity,technology,economic development,Socialism,USSR ,China

link to paper page of the journal website

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecot.12060/full

citation format

MLA Leeuwen, Bas, Dmitry Didenko, and Péter Földvári. “Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010).” Economics of Transition 23.1 (2015): 213-246.
APA Leeuwen, B., Didenko, D., & Földvári, P. (2015). Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010). Economics of Transition, 23(1), 213-246.
Chicago Leeuwen, Bas, Dmitry Didenko, and Péter Földvári. “Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010).” Economics of Transition 23, no. 1 (2015): 213-246.
Harvard Leeuwen, B., Didenko, D. and Földvári, P., 2015. Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010). Economics of Transition, 23(1), pp.213-246.
Vancouver Leeuwen B, Didenko D, Földvári P. Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010). Economics of Transition. 2015 Jan 1;23(1):213-46.

The Changing Shape of Global Inequality 1820–2000; Exploring a New Dataset

when 2014
who Jan Luiten van Zanden

Joerg Baten

Péter Földvári

Bas van Leeuwen

what journal Review of Income and Wealth
what paper The Changing Shape of Global Inequality 1820–2000; Exploring a New Dataset
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

A new dataset for charting the development of global inequality between 1820 and 2000 is presented, based on a large variety of sources and methods for estimating (gross household) income inequality. On this basis we estimate the evolution of global income inequality over the past two centuries. Two sets of benchmarks about between-country inequality (the Maddison 1990 benchmark and the recent 2005 ICP round) are taken into account. We find that between 1820 and 1950, increasing per capita income is combined with increasing global inequality. After 1950, global inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient or the Theil index remains more or less constant. It also appears that the global income distribution was uni-modal in the nineteenth century, became increasingly bi-modal between 1910 and 1970 with two world wars, a depression and de-globalization, and was suddenly transformed back into a uni-modal distribution between 1980 and 2000.

keywords

economic development; inequality; output convergence; world

link to paper page of the journal website

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/roiw.12014/full

citation format

MLA Zanden, Jan Luiten, et al. “The changing shape of global inequality 1820–2000; exploring a new dataset.” Review of Income and Wealth 60.2 (2014): 279-297.
APA Zanden, J. L., Baten, J., Foldvari, P., & Leeuwen, B. (2014). The changing shape of global inequality 1820–2000; exploring a new dataset. Review of Income and Wealth, 60(2), 279-297.
Chicago Zanden, Jan Luiten, Joerg Baten, Peter Foldvari, and Bas Leeuwen. “The changing shape of global inequality 1820–2000; exploring a new dataset.” Review of Income and Wealth 60, no. 2 (2014): 279-297.
Harvard Zanden, J.L., Baten, J., Foldvari, P. and Leeuwen, B., 2014. The changing shape of global inequality 1820–2000; exploring a new dataset. Review of Income and Wealth, 60(2), pp.279-297.
Vancouver Zanden JL, Baten J, Foldvari P, Leeuwen B. The changing shape of global inequality 1820–2000; exploring a new dataset. Review of Income and Wealth. 2014 Jun 1;60(2):279-97.

Human Capital in Republican and New China: Regional and Long-Term Trends

Economic History of Developing Regions

when 2017
who Bas van Leeuwen
Peter Foldvari
Li Jieli
what journal Economic History of Developing Regions
what paper Human Capital in Republican and New China: Regional and Long-Term Trends
language 英文

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari Li Jieli

abstract

In recent decades it has been debated whether China’s growth performance is primarily driven by capital accumulation (more inputs) or rather by an increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth (better technology and institutions). The answer to this question may offer a glimpse into the future trends of China’s economic growth. If the perspiration factors are dominant, one should expect a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy in accordance with the traditional Solow model. If, however, TFP growth drives per capita GDP growth, one can expect a strong convergence of China toward the technological frontier. In this paper we combine historical, long-term analysis with quantitative methods to find out whether the effect of (both human- and physical) capital and TFP on growth changed over the last 90 years. While partly relying on existing data, lack of information required us to estimate a new dataset on human capital for the provinces of China between 1922 and 2010 which allows us to decompose the observed economic growth into accumulation driven and TFP driven parts. We find that general technological development improved steadily over the course of the 1990s and 2000s.

keywords

Chinaeconomic developmenthuman capitaltechnology


citation format

MLA van Leeuwen, Bas, Jieli van Leeuwen-Li, and Peter Foldvari. “Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends.” Economic History of Developing Regions 32.1 (2017): 1-36.
APA
van Leeuwen, B., van Leeuwen-Li, J., & Foldvari, P. (2017). Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends. Economic History of Developing Regions, 32(1), 1-36.
Chicago van Leeuwen, Bas, Jieli van Leeuwen-Li, and Peter Foldvari. “Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends.” Economic History of Developing Regions 32, no. 1 (2017): 1-36.
Harvard van Leeuwen, B., van Leeuwen-Li, J. and Foldvari, P., 2017. Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends. Economic History of Developing Regions, 32(1), pp.1-36.
Vancouver van Leeuwen B, van Leeuwen-Li J, Foldvari P. Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends. Economic History of Developing Regions. 2017 Jan 2;32(1):1-36.

Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870-2000

when 2014
who Péter Földvári

Bas van Leeuwen

what journal Cliometrica
what paper Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870-2000
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

In this paper, we revisit the relationship between educational and income inequalities in a historical perspective, using a newly developed annual dataset of average years of education in Europe. Theoretically one would expect a reduction in educational inequality should, given the positive correlation between education level and income, initially increase and then, at a later stage, reduce income inequality. Testing for such a Kuznets-type relationship between educational and income inequalities yields an unexpected result: we find the expected inverse U-curve before the 1950s, but the relationship changes into a normal U-curve afterward. We explain this observation by a change in the trend of skill premium during the second half of the twentieth century due to an increased relative demand for skills, which contradicts the usual assumption of decreasing returns to education. Due to lack of appropriate wage data, we cannot directly capture this effect. Yet, once we use an instrumental variable estimation method to filter out the effect of the omitted skill premium, the expected inverse U-curve also appears for the latter decades of the twentieth century.

keywords

Average years of education, Economic development, Inequality, Kuznets-curve

link to paper page of the journal website

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11698-013-0105-3

citation format

MLA
Földvári, Péter, and Bas van Leeuwen. “Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870–2000.” Cliometrica 8.3 (2014): 271-300.
APA
Földvári, P., & van Leeuwen, B. (2014). Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870–2000. Cliometrica, 8(3), 271-300.
Chicago Földvári, Péter, and Bas van Leeuwen. “Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870–2000.” Cliometrica 8, no. 3 (2014): 271-300.
Harvard Földvári, P. and van Leeuwen, B., 2014. Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870–2000. Cliometrica, 8(3), pp.271-300.
Vancouver Földvári P, van Leeuwen B. Educational and income inequality in Europe, ca. 1870–2000. Cliometrica. 2014 Sep 1;8(3):271-300.