Human Capital in Qing China: Economic Determinism or a History of Failed Opportunities?

when 2013
who Xu Yi
Peter Foldvari
Bas van Leeuwen
what journal MPRA Paper
what paper Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari Xu Yi
     

abstract

The traditional education system in Qing China has been widely debated over the past decades. Some have argued it was efficient and furthered economic growth, while others have stressed its inefficient nature, which led to the introduction of the modern education system in the closing decades of the 19th century, followed by its total collapse in 1905. In this paper we make a first try to quantify above debate. Starting from the observation that below the well-known civil examination system there existed a whole system of popular and vocational education, we find that years of education in the population were still lower than in many European countries. More interestingly, whereas in European countries years of education increased strongly in the 19th century, our estimates of average years of education and the ABCC indices show that the level of education remained stable well into the 1920s when it accelerated. However, the main rise only occurred during the late 20th century. This finding leads to an interesting question since per capita income only started to grow significantly since the 1950s. This means that the rise of education since the mid-1920s was not as such driven by per capita income. Apparently this was the same for both the traditional and modern education since the latter had already started to transform Chinese education from the 1890s onwards. Hence, we have to look at the question why persons decided to follow education, i.e. was it individually profitable to follow education (positive private returns)? However, testing for this latter hypothesis shows that, after correction for foregone earnings, life expectancy, and probability of passing the exams, only the below shengyuan level students actually had positive returns. For an ordinary person it was therefore uneconomical to join in the civil examination system. Apparently this did not change, not even after the introduction of the modern education system, until the 1950s.

keywords

human capital; China, private returns; economic development

citation format

MLA
Xu, Yi, Peter Foldvari, and Bas Van Leeuwen. “Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.” (2013).
APA
Xu, Y., Foldvari, P., & Van Leeuwen, B. (2013). Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.
Chicago
Xu, Yi, Peter Foldvari, and Bas Van Leeuwen. “Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.” (2013).
Harvard
Xu, Y., Foldvari, P. and Van Leeuwen, B., 2013. Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.
Vancouver
Xu Y, Foldvari P, Van Leeuwen B. Human capital in Qing China: economic determinism or a history of failed opportunities?.

 

The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800

when 2013
who Péter Földvári
Bas van Leeuwen
Jan Luiten van Zanden
what journal De Economist
what paper The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

Migration always played an important role in Dutch society. However, little quantitative evidence on its effect on economic development is known for the period before the twentieth century even though some stories exist about their effect on the Golden Age. Applying a VAR analysis on a new dataset on migration and growth for the period 1570–1800, we find that migration had a positive effect on factor accumulation during the whole period, and a positive direct effect on the per capita income during the Golden Age. This seems to confirm those studies that claim that the Dutch economy during its Golden Age at least partially benefitted from immigration.

keywords

Economic growth,Immigration,Holland,Endogenous development,Human capital

citation format

MLA
Foldvari, Peter, Bas van Leeuwen, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. “The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800.” De Economist (2013): 1-18.
APA Foldvari, P., van Leeuwen, B., & van Zanden, J. L. (2013). The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800. De Economist, 1-18.
Chicago Foldvari, Peter, Bas van Leeuwen, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. “The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800.” De Economist (2013): 1-18.
Harvard Foldvari, P., van Leeuwen, B. and van Zanden, J.L., 2013. The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800. De Economist, pp.1-18.
Vancouver Foldvari P, van Leeuwen B, van Zanden JL. The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570–1800. De Economist. 2013 Mar 1:1-8.

 

Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008

when 2015
who Péter Földvári
Bas van Leeuwen
Dmitry Didenko
what journal Acta Oeconomica
what paper Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

According to the consensus view, it was primarily physical capital accumulation that drove economic growth during the early years of state socialism. Growth models incorporating both human and physical capital accumulation led to the conclusion that a high physical/human capital ratio can cause a lower economic growth in the long run, hence offering an explanation for the failure of socialist economies. In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that according to the logic of the socialist planner, it was optimal to achieve a higher physical to human capital ratio in socialist countries than in the West. Using a VAR analysis, we find empirical confirmation that within the Material Product System of national accounting, the relative dominance of investment in physical capital accumulation relative to human capital was indeed more efficient than under the system of national accounts.

keywords

Central planning, capital accumulation, human capital, Soviet Union, national accounts, E01, E22, O11, O21

citation format

MLA
Földvári, Péter, Bas van Leeuwen, and Dmitry Didenko. “Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008.” Acta Oeconomica 65.1 (2015): 27-50.
APA Földvári, P., van Leeuwen, B., & Didenko, D. (2015). Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008. Acta Oeconomica, 65(1), 27-50.
Chicago Földvári, Péter, Bas van Leeuwen, and Dmitry Didenko. “Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008.” Acta Oeconomica 65, no. 1 (2015): 27-50.
Harvard Földvári, P., van Leeuwen, B. and Didenko, D., 2015. Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008. Acta Oeconomica, 65(1), pp.27-50.
Vancouver Földvári P, van Leeuwen B, Didenko D. Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008. Acta Oeconomica. 2015 Mar 1;65(1):27-50.

Inspiration vs. Perspiration in Economic Development of the Former Soviet Union and China

when 2015
who Bas van Leeuwen

Dmitry Didenko

Péter Földvári

what journal Economics of Transition
what paper Inspiration vs. Perspiration in Economic Development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010)
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

We thank Stephen Broadberry, Kyoji Fukao and other participants of the Productivity session of the 2012 Asian Historical Economics Conference held at Hitotsubashi University; their contributions to the discussion helped to improve this paper. The authors are also grateful to an anonymous referee for useful advice and suggestions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions are the authors’ own views, which are not necessarily shared by the institutions with which they are affiliated. The authors accept full responsibility for the contents of the paper, including possible errors and omissions. This paper was supported by the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities in China (Jinan University).

abstract

Here, we discuss the role of both perspiration factors (physical and human capital) and inspiration factors (Total Factor Productivity) in the economic development of the Former Soviet Union area (FSU) and China, ca. 1920–2010. Using a newly created dataset, we find that during the Socialist central-planning period, economic growth in both countries was largely driven by physical capital accumulation. This finding follows logically from the development policies in place at that time. During their transition periods, (i.e., starting from the late 1970s in China and the late 1980s in the FSU), China managed to keep technical inefficiency of production factors in check, largely by massively increasing its human capital, thereby lowering the physical-to-human capital ratio. In contrast, the FSU accomplished a similar outcome largely through reducing its stock of physical capital. As a result, although there was little difference in technical efficiency between these two economies, China’s emphasis on human capital formation made it easier for this country to improve its general productivity and to increase per capita growth. This changed in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the FSU began to recover economically, regaining its 1990 levels of output and productivity.

keywords

Physical capital,human capital,productivity,technology,economic development,Socialism,USSR ,China

link to paper page of the journal website

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecot.12060/full

citation format

MLA Leeuwen, Bas, Dmitry Didenko, and Péter Földvári. “Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010).” Economics of Transition 23.1 (2015): 213-246.
APA Leeuwen, B., Didenko, D., & Földvári, P. (2015). Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010). Economics of Transition, 23(1), 213-246.
Chicago Leeuwen, Bas, Dmitry Didenko, and Péter Földvári. “Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010).” Economics of Transition 23, no. 1 (2015): 213-246.
Harvard Leeuwen, B., Didenko, D. and Földvári, P., 2015. Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010). Economics of Transition, 23(1), pp.213-246.
Vancouver Leeuwen B, Didenko D, Földvári P. Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010). Economics of Transition. 2015 Jan 1;23(1):213-46.

An Alternative Interpretation of “average years of education” in growth regressions

when 2009
who Péter Földvári

Bas van Leeuwen

what journal Applied Economics Letters
what paper An Alternative Interpretation of “average years of education” in growth regressions
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

The majority of the empirical literature uses average years of education as a proxy of the human capital stock. Based on Lucas (1988) we argue that the level of average years of education can also be seen as a proxy for the growth rate of the per capita human capital stock. This has fundamental impact on the interpretation of the coefficient and may explain some of the contradictory empirical results.

keywords

Human capital, education, economic growth, panel analysis

link to paper page of the journal website

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504850701222178

citation format

MLA Földvári, Péter, and Bas van Leeuwen. “An alternative interpretation of ‘average years of education’in growth regressions.” Applied Economics Letters 16.9 (2009): 945-949
APA Földvári, P., & van Leeuwen, B. (2009). An alternative interpretation of ‘average years of education’in growth regressions. Applied Economics Letters, 16(9), 945-949.
Chicago Földvári, Péter, and Bas van Leeuwen. “An alternative interpretation of ‘average years of education’in growth regressions.” Applied Economics Letters 16, no. 9 (2009): 945-949.
Harvard Földvári, P. and van Leeuwen, B., 2009. An alternative interpretation of ‘average years of education’in growth regressions. Applied Economics Letters, 16(9), pp.945-949.
Vancouver Földvári P, van Leeuwen B. An alternative interpretation of ‘average years of education’in growth regressions. Applied Economics Letters. 2009 May 22;16(9):945-9.

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis

when 2008
who Bas van Leeuwen

Péter Földvári

what journal Asian Economic Journal 
what paper Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time-series Analysis
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari
   

abstract

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long-run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer’s view.

keywords

human capital; education; economic growth; time-series analysis; cointegration

link to paper page of the journal website

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2008.00276.x/full

citation format

MLA Van Leeuwen, Bas, and Peter Foldvari. “Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis.” Asian Economic Journal 22.3 (2008): 225-240.
APA Van Leeuwen, B., & Foldvari, P. (2008). Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis. Asian Economic Journal, 22(3), 225-240.
Chicago Van Leeuwen, Bas, and Peter Foldvari. “Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis.” Asian Economic Journal 22, no. 3 (2008): 225-240.
Harvard Van Leeuwen, B. and Foldvari, P., 2008. Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis. Asian Economic Journal, 22(3), pp.225-240.
Vancouver Van Leeuwen B, Foldvari P. Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis. Asian Economic Journal. 2008 Sep 1;22(3):225-40.

 

Human Capital in Republican and New China: Regional and Long-Term Trends

Economic History of Developing Regions

when 2017
who Bas van Leeuwen
Peter Foldvari
Li Jieli
what journal Economic History of Developing Regions
what paper Human Capital in Republican and New China: Regional and Long-Term Trends
language English

involved project member(s)

Bas van Leeuwen Peter Foldvari Li Jieli

abstract

In recent decades it has been debated whether China’s growth performance is primarily driven by capital accumulation (more inputs) or rather by an increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth (better technology and institutions). The answer to this question may offer a glimpse into the future trends of China’s economic growth. If the perspiration factors are dominant, one should expect a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy in accordance with the traditional Solow model. If, however, TFP growth drives per capita GDP growth, one can expect a strong convergence of China toward the technological frontier. In this paper we combine historical, long-term analysis with quantitative methods to find out whether the effect of (both human- and physical) capital and TFP on growth changed over the last 90 years. While partly relying on existing data, lack of information required us to estimate a new dataset on human capital for the provinces of China between 1922 and 2010 which allows us to decompose the observed economic growth into accumulation driven and TFP driven parts. We find that general technological development improved steadily over the course of the 1990s and 2000s.

keywords

Chinaeconomic developmenthuman capitaltechnology


citation format

MLA van Leeuwen, Bas, Jieli van Leeuwen-Li, and Peter Foldvari. “Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends.” Economic History of Developing Regions 32.1 (2017): 1-36.
APA
van Leeuwen, B., van Leeuwen-Li, J., & Foldvari, P. (2017). Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends. Economic History of Developing Regions, 32(1), 1-36.
Chicago van Leeuwen, Bas, Jieli van Leeuwen-Li, and Peter Foldvari. “Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends.” Economic History of Developing Regions 32, no. 1 (2017): 1-36.
Harvard van Leeuwen, B., van Leeuwen-Li, J. and Foldvari, P., 2017. Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends. Economic History of Developing Regions, 32(1), pp.1-36.
Vancouver van Leeuwen B, van Leeuwen-Li J, Foldvari P. Human capital in Republican and New China: regional and long-term trends. Economic History of Developing Regions. 2017 Jan 2;32(1):1-36.