Lecture “History and Economic Development” in Shanghai

On October 21-22, 2017, our researcher Prof. Dr. Xu Yi was invited to lecture in the First Workshop for “History and Economic Development”, in Shanghai, China.

His presentation was “A Short Introduction to Historical Database Project“, in which he reviewed the Great Divergence debate, and introduced three Chinese historical database of the HINDI research team, i.e. Chinese National Income (1661-1933), Chinese Human Capital (1368-1911) and Chinese Industrialization (1850-2000).

More details are available in the Chinese report.

HINDI项目组徐毅教授在上海出席首届历史与经济发展工作坊

20171021日至22日,HINDI项目组徐毅教授应邀出席在中国上海松江举行的首届历史与经济发展工作坊学术研讨会,介绍了HINDI项目组建设的三项中国历史数据库,并和来自北京大学、复旦大学、河南大学、上海财经大学、上海交通大学、上海社会科学院、上海对外经贸大学、中国人民大学、中央财经大学、河南大学、暨南大学、广东外语外贸大学等10余所知名院校的20余名青年学者与嘉宾开展了学术交流。

以下为来自研讨会主办方的相关报道(作者:李亚婧 贺嵬嵬,文章来源:HED历史与经济发展工作坊 ):

研讨会以多重视野下的中国历史与经济发展研究为主题,各位参会青年学者从不同学科视野分享了最新研究成果,并就当前历史计量研究在我国的发展现状与未来展开了圆桌讨论。首届历史与经济发展工作坊学术研讨会获得了圆满成功,取得了丰硕成果。

当前历史计量研究不仅仅关注经济学或历史学单一某个领域,而呈现出多学科交叉研究的趋势,研究问题日益多元化,在多重视野下对中国历史与经济发展进行研究。

人口、疾病与经济发展。人口增长和人力资本都是决定经济发展的重要因素,而教育有助于人力资本的积累。中央财经大学申广军博士报告的论文“Do Schools Cause Students? Evidence from China’s Post-Famine Baby Boom”讨论了学校扩建对入学率的促进作用。通过构建1970-1978年27个省级面板数据,利用大饥荒后出现的婴儿潮作为工具变量。研究发现,学校的扩张有助于提高入学率和识字率。这对人口增长与人力资本积累的关系有更好的认识和理解,并对我国当前的教育政策具有启发意义。疾病也一直是影响经济发展的重要因素,历史上出现的疾病现象对经济发展产生长期的重要影响。广东外语外贸大学林友宏博士报告的论文《智慧元素的力量:碘缺乏病防治对我国经济发展的长期影响》探讨了碘缺乏症防治运动对我国经济发展带来的长期影响。通过利用中国劳动力动态调查微观数据,采用双重差分法考察补碘运动对个体身高、教育和收入的长期影响。研究发现,在上世纪七八十年代大规模补碘运动有效提升了孕妇和胎儿的碘摄入水平,改善了新生儿的健康和智力水平,显著提高了缺碘地区个体的受教育年限和年收入水平,从而对我国人力资本积累和经济发展产生了重要的作用。

移民、宗教与经济发展。历史上大规模的人口迁移构成了整个世界经济发展的重要内容,暨南大学谢斌助理教授关于美国上世纪移民史研究的论文“The Effects of Immigration Quotas on Wages, the Great Black Migration, and Industrial Development”探讨了移民配额自然实验对制造业工资、生产、技术和黑人大迁徙的影响。通过计算反事实的潜在移民和实际移民之差发现,移民配额限制了移民供给,导致了制造业工资上涨,而工资的上升促使黑人大迁徙到北方和西部,并促进了制造业的资本和技能密集度,但移民劳动力的短缺限制了制造业规模和电气化进程。这对当前移民政策具有重要的启发意义。北京大学颜色副教授的论文“Religion and Trade: Evidence from Historical Protestant Activities in China”考察了历史上中国基督教传教士活动对国际贸易的长期影响,通过匹配上世纪20年代的基督徒分布和2000年的外贸出口数据,实证检验了历史上的基督徒对于当代贸易的促进作用,并进一步探讨了教育和人力资本的机制问题。

水利、气候与农业发展。普林斯顿大学陈婷博士报告的论文“The Impact of Three Gorges Dam in Climate and Agricultural Adaptation”考察了三峡大坝水利工程对气候和农业的影响及其机制,通过综合GIS数据、气象数据、1989-2013年农调队观察点数据发现,2003年开始的三峡蓄水显著降低了200公里以内的下游降雨,减少春小麦亩产,刺激农民改种抗旱作物。而对水稻亩产和劳动力分配尚未发现影响。这一研究为衡量大型水利工程项目的长期影响提供了新的视角。

法制、皇权与士绅。河南大学彭凯翔教授的论文《“治人”与“治法”之间:从清代法律修订看官僚制下的法制建设》从法制史角度探讨了中华法系属性,通过梳理《大清律例》的修订过程,作者认为由于中国传统官僚制下君臣之间存在信息不对称问题,立法难以解决激励机制问题,因此法律演进由“法治”转向“治人之法”。利用清代《读例存疑》中的修例数据和《明清人名权威资料库》中官员数据进行实证检验这一假说,发现在立法建言的过程中,积极参与立法对官员的晋升并无显著作用,皇帝偏好和官员身份发挥了重要作用。这有助于更好的理解中华法系内部的不平衡发展。中国人民大学林展博士报告的论文“There is no Mercy: Legitimacy, Elite Competition and Political Discipline”从政治经济学角度考察统治者对官员惩治的动力,作者提出,在权力斗争过程中继承的合法性是重要的根源。通过利用《二十四史》中的数据来检验这一假说,以太子来衡量继承的合法性,作者发现皇位继承的合法性和兄弟数量会显著影响皇帝即位后对官员的惩罚。北京大学郝煜助理教授的论文《士绅权力扩张的来源和后果:1850-1911》考察了太平天国之后士绅的崛起及其影响。利用吏绅分权的行政发包理论,对近代士绅行为构建了一个解释框架并提供了实证检验。太平天国兴起之后,士绅崛起,获得征税权和其他行政权力,在慈善、教育等领域活动扩大。科举制废除之后,士绅面临的晋升激励机制发生变化,新政下更加热衷于汲取地方资源而失去对清王朝忠诚,最终导致民变发生,士绅响应辛亥革命。

数据库、可视化与传统史学。广西师范大学徐毅教授的报告“A Short Introduction to Historical Database Projects ”从学术史回顾了大分流争论,并介绍搜集和构建的三个中国历史数据库:中国国民收入(1661-1933)、中国人力资本(1368-1911)、中国工业化(1850-2000),以上数据库公开之后将为国内经济和历史学者提供标准化的、可跨国比较的基础数据,从而为历史计量学研究提供可靠的历史数据。上海财经大学王哲博士的论文《历史空间数据可视化的初步探索》介绍了地理空间可视化的发展历程,并利用海关数据和近代邮政舆图数据对空间可视化在历史研究中的应用进行了具体的分析,他认为历史数据可视化过程是一个不断试错的实验,可以推动过去的研究工作,更好的认识以前模糊的空间边界。上海交通大学赵思渊博士报告的论文《增长与脱嵌:近 20 年中国经济史研究的问题意识与进路》从传统史学角度回顾与反思了近20年来中国经济史的研究,指出在资本主义萌芽论之后,经济史再无核心问题意识,经济史研究趋向分散。通过对《中国经济史研究》、《中国社会经济史研究》从2000到2016年的发表论文的统计量化分析,发现研究较多关注明清以后的历史,并以长江下游与华南地区为主。同时,从经济史关心的两个核心问题,即经济成长和经济结构来论述农业发展、人口增长、产业经济、市场经济、国家力量等方面的研究新进展。

从上述最新研究成果可以看出,随着新的史料和数据的不断涌现,经济、社会、政治学理论的不断革新,计量统计方法和技术的不断进步,历史计量学在中国也不断发展与创新。探讨历史问题与现象成为理解人类社会经济发展进程以及当前国家与地区之间经济发展的重要根源,历史事件和现象本身及其长期影响成为经济学研究的重要内容。本次研讨会为历史计量学、历史学以及发展经济学的青年学者提供了一个严谨规范的学术交流平台,研讨会上学者也指出当前历史计量学存在史料薄弱与数据滥用、学术规范与学科评价缺失等现象和问题。如何适应当前历史计量学与发展经济学研究的新趋势,进一步推动和规范历史计量研究发展,重视史料和数据库等基础工作的构建与共享,增进历史学家与经济学家的对话与交流,促进各学科之间的合作与融合,建立严格统一的学术规范和学科边界,创造良好的学术生态环境,促进学科的建设和发展,仍需要各界学者的共同努力。

《大数据与中国历史研究》第1辑出版

On this month, June 2017, the works of our researchers Dr. Bas van Leeuwen and Prof. Dr. Xu Yi, and our visiting scholar Prof. Dr. Yuan Weipeng, have been published in the First Issue of a new bulletin in China, “Big Data and the Study of Chinese History“. This bulletin is published by Social Science Academic Press, and presented by the Institute for Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences, and the School of History and Culture, which are both from Central China Normal University, which is also known as Huazhong Normal University.

Dr. Bas van Leeuwen Prof. Dr. Xu Yi Prof. Dr. Yuan Weipeng
yuan weipeng 袁为鹏

Since 2013, Central China Normal University has been co-operated with Hong Kong University of Science and Technology on the topic of Big Data and the Study of Chinese History. Renowned historians Prof.Dr. James Lee, Prof.Dr. Cameron Campbell and Prof.Dr. Li Bozhong were involved as Adjunct Professor. Annually circa 10 scholars who have expertise on quantitative history research are invited to speak in the lecture series “Big Data and the Study of Chinese History” in Central China Normal University. This bulletin is a collection of relevant researches and speeches.

In the First Issue of the bulletin, the selected research of our researchers Dr. Bas van Leeuwen and Prof. Dr. Xu Yi is: Ni Yuping, Xu Yi and Bas van Leeuwen (2016), “Calculation China’s Historical Economic Aggregate: A GDP-centered Overview”. Social Sciences in China, 37(2), 56-75.

The selected research of our visiting scholar Prof. Dr. Yuan Weipeng is: Ma, Debin and Yuan, Weipeng (2016), “Discovering economic history in footnotes: the story of the Tong Taisheng merchant archive (1790-1850)“. Modern China, 42 (5). 483-504.

The selected speech of our visiting scholar Prof. Dr. Yuan Weipeng is: “a talk on the quantitative history”.

Central China Normal University 华中师范大学

Workshop: Chinese Economic Performance at Guangxi Normal University

Guilin

Quantitative analysis of Chinese economic performance between AD 960 and 1911

Date of the workshop: Thu 25- Sat 26 September, 2014

Organizer: Guangxi Normal University and Utrecht University

VenueGuangxi Normal University, Guangxi, China

 

Aim

The aim of this workshop is to discuss the long-run economic development of China between the Sung and Qing period. By discussing and comparing quantitative evidence of the main economic sectors stretching over this period, the organizers hope a) to gain more insights in the structural processes driving economic development in China and b) to facilitate international comparison.

 

Basic requests for participants

a)Please write the paper in English.

b) the working language of the workshop is English, even though the possibility exist to use Chinese.

c) Deadline for submission of papers: the 1st September 2014. Authors are encouraged to submit as soon as possible. If required, they can ask the organizers of the workshop to have a first read of their paper on the English language.

e) Workshop papers have no specific length. However, as a rule of thumb papers may be between 4,000 and 10,000 words.

 

Persons involved in the workshop: 

a) Organizers workshop

Dr. Xuyi (Guangxi Normal University)

Dr. Bas van Leeuwen( Utrecht University)

Dr. Peter Foldvari (Utrecht University)

 

b)   participants

Prof. Shi Zhihong (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Prof. Liu Lanxi (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Prof. Chen Zhengping (Tsjinghua University)

Prof. Zhu Congbing (Suzhou University)

Prof. Tang Ling (Guangxi Normal University)

Dr. Bishnupriya Gupta (Warwick University)

Dr. Bas van Leeuwen(IISH and Utrecht University)

Dr. Liu Guanglin (The Hong Kong University of Science & Technology)

Dr. Ni Yuping ( Beijing Normal University)

Dr. Peter Foldvari (Utrecht University)

Dr. Su Jinghua (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Dr. Wang Zunwang( Fujian Chinese Traditional Medical University)

Dr. Xuyi ( Guangxi Normal University)

Dr. Yu Qingliang (Hangzhou Normal University)

Peng Kaixiang (Henan University)

Ye Ma (University of Groningen)

 

 

Papers & Programme (click here for pdf version of programme with Chinese translations)

 

Day 1 – 2014/9/25 Fengcai Meeting Room, Guilin Park Hotel

8:30-12:00           

Opening ceremony and welcome speeches.

Speech: Bas van Leeuwen (Utrecht University) Industrialization around the South China Sea in world perspective, ca. 1810-2012 – abstract

Session 1

14.00-15.30 Chaired by Liu Lanxi

* Dr. Liu Guanglin – Output and Population in the Song and Min: a cross check – abstract

* Dr. Su Jinhua – On the Horse Trade of Song Dynasty –abstract

* Dr. Wang Zunwang – On the grain price in Ming Dynasty

 

15.30 – 16.00 coffee/tea break

 

Session 2

16.00-18.00 chaired by Bisnupriya Gupta

* Prof. Shi Zhihong – Agriculture in Ming and Qing.

* Dr. Yu Qingliang – Government finance in Ming dynasty.

* Jieli Li, Bas van Leeuwen and Xuyi – Printing industry from the Ming till the Qing dynasty – abstract

* Ye Ma – The State Civilian Granary System and the Rice Market in 18th–19th Century China – abstract

* Peter Foldvari – Market integration in Qing China and Europe: a reinterpretation – abstract

 

Day 2 – 2014/9/25 Fengcai Meeting Room, Guilin Park Hotel

Session 1

8.30 – 10.00 chaired by Gao Chaoqun

* Prof. Zhu Congbing – Railways in the Qing dynasty.

* Prof. Ni Yuping – A Preliminary Analysis of the Customs Duties Data:1644-1911 – abstract

* Prof. Chen Zhengping – Characteristics of International trade during 3 stages in New China

* Prof. Tang Ling – On the Collection of Materials of Merchant Guilds in Guangxi Local History

 

10.00-10.30 coffee/tea break

 

Session 2

10.30-12.00 chaired by Peter Foldvari

* Peng Kaixiang – Financial Integration between China and the World: 1870-1940 – abstract

* Dr. Xuyi – Chinese National Income, ca. 1661-1933 abstract

* Dr. Bishnupriya Gupta – Two Asia giants: comparing India and China

 

12.00 – 12.30

Meeting of the Quantitative History of China Series – chaired by: Prof. Shi Zhihong and Bas van Leeuwen

 

研讨会:“新海上丝绸之路构建:从泛北部湾到欧洲”国际学术研讨会在广西师范大学举行(中国桂林)

Guilin

Quantitative analysis of Chinese economic performance between AD 960 and 1911

Date of the workshop: Thu 25- Sat 26 September, 2014

Organizer: Guangxi Normal University and Utrecht University

VenueGuangxi Normal University, Guangxi, China

Aim

The aim of this workshop is to discuss the long-run economic development of China between the Sung and Qing period. By discussing and comparing quantitative evidence of the main economic sectors stretching over this period, the organizers hope a) to gain more insights in the structural processes driving economic development in China and b) to facilitate international comparison.

Basic requests for participants

a)Please write the paper in English.

b) the working language of the workshop is English, even though the possibility exist to use Chinese.

c) Deadline for submission of papers: the 1st September 2014. Authors are encouraged to submit as soon as possible. If required, they can ask the organizers of the workshop to have a first read of their paper on the English language.

e) Workshop papers have no specific length. However, as a rule of thumb papers may be between 4,000 and 10,000 words.

Persons involved in the workshop: 

a) Organizers workshop

Dr. Xuyi (Guangxi Normal University)

Dr. Bas van Leeuwen( Utrecht University)

Dr. Peter Foldvari (Utrecht University)

b)   participants

Prof. Shi Zhihong (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Prof. Liu Lanxi (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Prof. Chen Zhengping (Tsjinghua University)

Prof. Zhu Congbing (Suzhou University)

Prof. Tang Ling (Guangxi Normal University)

Dr. Bishnupriya Gupta (Warwick University)

Dr. Bas van Leeuwen(IISH and Utrecht University)

Dr. Liu Guanglin (The Hong Kong University of Science & Technology)

Dr. Ni Yuping ( Beijing Normal University)

Dr. Peter Foldvari (Utrecht University)

Dr. Su Jinghua (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Dr. Wang Zunwang( Fujian Chinese Traditional Medical University)

Dr. Xuyi ( Guangxi Normal University)

Dr. Yu Qingliang (Hangzhou Normal University)

Peng Kaixiang (Henan University)

Ye Ma (University of Groningen)

Papers & Programme (click here for pdf version of programme with Chinese translations)

Day 1 – 2014/9/25 Fengcai Meeting Room, Guilin Park Hotel

8:30-12:00           

Opening ceremony and welcome speeches.

Speech: Bas van Leeuwen (Utrecht University) Industrialization around the South China Sea in world perspective, ca. 1810-2012 – abstract

Session 1

14.00-15.30 Chaired by Liu Lanxi

* Dr. Liu Guanglin – Output and Population in the Song and Min: a cross check – abstract

* Dr. Su Jinhua – On the Horse Trade of Song Dynasty –abstract

* Dr. Wang Zunwang – On the grain price in Ming Dynasty

15.30 – 16.00 coffee/tea break

Session 2

16.00-18.00 chaired by Bisnupriya Gupta

* Prof. Shi Zhihong – Agriculture in Ming and Qing.

* Dr. Yu Qingliang – Government finance in Ming dynasty.

* Jieli Li, Bas van Leeuwen and Xuyi – Printing industry from the Ming till the Qing dynasty – abstract

* Ye Ma – The State Civilian Granary System and the Rice Market in 18th–19th Century China – abstract

* Peter Foldvari – Market integration in Qing China and Europe: a reinterpretation – abstract

Day 2 – 2014/9/25 Fengcai Meeting Room, Guilin Park Hotel

Session 1

8.30 – 10.00 chaired by Gao Chaoqun

* Prof. Zhu Congbing – Railways in the Qing dynasty.

* Prof. Ni Yuping – A Preliminary Analysis of the Customs Duties Data:1644-1911 – abstract

* Prof. Chen Zhengping – Characteristics of International trade during 3 stages in New China

* Prof. Tang Ling – On the Collection of Materials of Merchant Guilds in Guangxi Local History

10.00-10.30 coffee/tea break

Session 2

10.30-12.00 chaired by Peter Foldvari

* Peng Kaixiang – Financial Integration between China and the World: 1870-1940 – abstract

* Dr. Xuyi – Chinese National Income, ca. 1661-1933 abstract

* Dr. Bishnupriya Gupta – Two Asia giants: comparing India and China

12.00 – 12.30

Meeting of the Quantitative History of China Series – chaired by: Prof. Shi Zhihong and Bas van Leeuwen